Can China afford to eliminate pollution?

It’s very good news that so many Chinese are so concerned about pollution (Google “Chai Jing documentary”) but I’m worried that under their present system, they have no way to really change it. I think the problem isn’t just political corruption or insufficient transparency: it’s that the level of debt throughout the society is already too high. The more companies control pollution, the lower their profits. The more the government tries to eliminate pollution, the more it’ll spend. But over the past 7 years, China’s debt level has already nearly quadrupled, so if it slows the economy to take on the pollution problem, will it afford to pay off its debts? Using debt to power an economy is like running on a treadmill whose speed you can’t adjust. Once you slow down, you fall. I still think China has to face the pollution problem (I refuse to live there because of it) but if it really wants to do that, I fear it’ll have to go through a financial crisis and recession first.

這麼多中國人這麼關心環境污染是一件非常好的消息,可是我擔心在現在的制度下他們無法真正改變這個情況。我認為,問題不只是政治腐敗或不夠透明,而是全社會中負債額度已經太高。公司越控制污染利潤就越少,還有政府越消除污染要花的錢越多,可是這七年中全國負債額度已經漲了三倍,所以如果讓經濟緩慢以面對巨大的污染問題,還還得起負債嗎?用負債來推動經濟就像用無法調整的跑步機,你一緩慢就倒下來了。我還是認為中國需要面對污染問題(我個人因此就千萬不要住那邊)可是真得要做的話,恐怕要先經過一次金融危機與經濟衰退。

Explore posts in the same categories: China, Politics

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